National Weather Service forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year with 4 to 7 major hurricanes.

According to a press release published Thursday, May 23, from the organization, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season. The report predicts a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. 

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those storms, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Forecasts predict those storms include 4 to 7 major hurricanes that are category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to have above-normal activity due to a combination of several factors. The press release notes near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear all merge to favor tropical storm formation this year.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in the press release. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

El Nino, La Nina, And Predicting Hurricane Activity

Folks who casually check the weather may recall the terms “El Nino” and “La Nina” referenced by forecasters during previous hurricane seasons. But what do those terms mean?

According to an article by NOAA, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia during normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths in a process called upwelling. El Nino and La Nina are two opposing climate patterns that break these ordinary conditions. Scientists call these phenomena the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

The article states that During El Nino, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas. These warmer waters cause the pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. This shift makes areas in the northern U.S. and Canada dryer and warmer than usual while causing the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast to be wetter than usual and have increased flooding.

La Nina, on the other hand, causes trade winds to become stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Upwelling off the West Coast of the Americas then increases, making the waters cooler there. The article explains that these cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, which tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

Gerry Bell, NOAA hurricane climate specialist and research meteorologist, describes El Nino and La Nina as a “see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans” in a ENSO Blog post published on climate.gov. The phenomenon strengthens hurricane activity in one region while weakening it in the other.

Put simply, La Nina causes stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic while weakening those in the Pacific, and El Nino conversely causes stronger hurricanes in the Pacific while weakening those in the Atlantic. As one of the strongest El Nino cycles recorded comes to an end, NOAA predicts a quick transition to La Nina conditions this hurricane season.

The post Boaters Expect More Hurricanes in 2024 appeared first on Yachting.

Pat Healey, the president and CEO of Viking Yachts, minces no words about the situation facing owners of boats 35 feet and longer: “If this would go into effect, it shuts down boating on the whole East Coast from November 1 to anywhere from the middle of April to the end of May.”

He’s talking about a proposal from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that would impose a 10-knot speed limit along much of the coast for much of the year, as a way to protect endangered North Atlantic right whales. The highly controversial proposal has drawn the ire of recreational boating and fishing groups, which say the idea poses an existential threat to all recreational boaters.

Since the rule-making process began last summer, Healey and others have been trying to sound the alarm, as well as come up with a solution. Now, he says, they think they have one the government might like: a task force called Whale and Vessel Safety, or WAVES.

“Our objective is to go to NOAA and say, ‘Hey, we’re going to develop a way to track the whales: tagging them,’” Healey says.

The idea is to take the same technology already used to tag and track marlin, tuna and other species, and now apply it to whales—in a way that lets boaters see the whales on their plotters, just like they’d see an oncoming boat with an AIS signal. “You’ll be able to alter your course and avoid them,” Healey says.

The sport-fishing community has been most vocal about concerns with the government’s proposal. Madelyne Rowan, tournament director of the White Marlin Open, says about 40 percent of participating boats in that tournament are chartered. If those boats can’t operate normally the rest of the year, they’ll go out of business—along with all the tackle shops, fuel docks, marinas and other businesses that make up marine communities, ultimately affecting all kinds of boaters.

“A lot of people don’t understand the potential scope of the economic impact that this restriction will have,” she says.

Healey says it’s an uphill battle to get NOAA to listen, but he likes his odds with the task-force concept: “This is a sensible way to get all stakeholders involved, instead of having complete governmental overreach.”

What’s Likely to Happen Next?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its proposed rule on August 1. A public comment period was then held until October 31. As of this writing, NOAA was still reviewing all the comments it received. After that process is done, the agency can issue its final rule with or without changes, as early as this summer. At that point, federal legislation or lawsuits become options to try and overturn the rule.

No More Day Trips?

Sport-fishing boats like this one often zip out to the canyons and back in the same day. Their speed makes this possible. If they’re forced to slow to 10 knots, boaters say, there won’t be any time left for actual fishing.

The post Boat-Speed Restrictions May Be Coming appeared first on Yachting.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has proposed a 10-knot, speed-restriction rule for vessels 35 feet to 65 feet length overall across a broad swath of water along the East Coast in an effort to reduce right whale mortality from vessel strikes. If the rule is implemented, the impact on cruisers, fishermen and more, from Florida to New England could be measurable.

Timelines for these Seasonal Management Zones or SMAs would vary depending on location, but generally they’d be in effect starting in November and run until mid-April to late-June (see proposed SMA map), extending from coastal waters out to 100 nautical miles. NOAA says the effort is an expansion of an already-existing rule for vessels greater than 65 feet length overall.

According to NOAA, there have been 12 lethal right whale vessel strikes since 2008. Of those, five of the vessels have measured less than 65 feet in length. NOAA claims the total right whale population is about 350 with around 100 of those being female, adding that while a population increase occurred between 1990 to 2010, there has been a reproductive decline over the past decade, noting that entanglement in fishing gear has also added to population decline.

The proposed rule has created a strong reaction from the boating, fishing and boatbuilder community.

In a press release, Viking Yachts president Pat Healey stated, “This would be a devastating regulatory mandate. Right whale vessel strikes have just not been an issue for our industry. This is a classic example of government overreach.”

In a letter to NOAA about the proposed rule, Healey stated, “The health of the ocean and all its life is of paramount importance to our company and boat owners. However, we believe the magnitude of the proposed rule warrants careful consideration to ensure that a practical, enforceable and realistic plan is put forward to address the right whale population.”

Viking claims that since 1998 there have been 24 known right whale vessel strikes across 10 states. Of those, eight were attributed to boats from 35 to 65 feet.

According to the American Sportfishing Association, the odds of a vessel from 35 feet to 65 feet striking a right whale are less than one in a million.

The International Game Fish Association stated on its website that the rule “would cripple America’s outdoor economy along the East Coast.”

The proposed speed-restriction rule is open for public comment until October 31, 2022.

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